Mon, 22 Nov 2004
Ride starting Mon Nov 22 15:39:54 2004
Went for a hike on our land. Checking out the trail to make
sure it was skiable for winter. It was, mostly. There's still
a few trees down that I couldn't drag off. I'll need to get back
there with a chainsaw before the blackflies get too bad in the
spring. There's about a two week period during which you can
do outdoor things unmolested.

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Fri, 19 Nov 2004
Ride starting Fri Nov 19 13:45:08 2004
This was the last bike ride of the season. It was a beautifully
warm and clear day. Definitely indian summer. Went straight from
home to Parishville. Stopped at the high school to examine
the new DANC fiber entrance. Also spotted the existing Verizon fiber
entrance. But no sign of the DANC fiber itself. Went out of town
heading for Hopkinton. Saw the DANC fiber spooled up on the side of the road.
Was considering going all the way to Hopkinton, but I'm glad
I didn't, because Green Rd heading north was a thrill ride. Dropped
around 200 feet in a mile and a quarter. I could see all the way to
the St. Lawrence river. Gorgeous, just gorgeous.

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Tue, 16 Nov 2004
Ride starting Tue Nov 16 15:24:38 2004
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Fri, 29 Oct 2004
Ride starting Fri Oct 29 16:38:38 2004
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Sat, 23 Oct 2004
Ride starting Sat Oct 23 16:21:26 2004
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Fri, 22 Oct 2004
Ride starting Fri Oct 22 16:20:23 2004
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Thu, 14 Oct 2004
Ride starting Thu Oct 14 14:04:32 2004
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Wed, 13 Oct 2004
Ride starting Wed Oct 13 15:43:27 2004
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Tue, 12 Oct 2004
Ride starting Tue Oct 12 13:05:36 2004
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Sun, 03 Oct 2004
Ride starting Sun Oct 3 14:02:16 2004
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Fri, 01 Oct 2004
Ride starting Fri Oct 1 17:05:01 2004
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Sun, 26 Sep 2004
Ride starting Sun Sep 26 16:19:39 2004
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Thu, 23 Sep 2004
Ride starting Thu Sep 23 15:13:56 2004
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Tue, 21 Sep 2004
Ride starting Tue Sep 21 15:52:52 2004
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Sat, 18 Sep 2004
Ride starting Sat Sep 18 13:12:33 2004
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Tue, 14 Sep 2004
Ride starting Tue Sep 14 17:42:50 2004
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Ride starting Tue Sep 14 17:13:01 2004
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Ride starting Tue Sep 14 16:45:47 2004
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Ride starting Tue Sep 14 16:33:48 2004
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Sat, 11 Sep 2004
Ride starting Sat Sep 11 16:55:10 2004
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Fri, 10 Sep 2004
Ride starting Fri Sep 10 17:12:03 2004
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Mon, 06 Sep 2004
Is Bush Republican?
I received the following email in response to a previous posting
about why a MOGOW would vote
Republican. I have to agree with the author. George H. W. Bush
is not an exemplary Republican. Two notes: first is that I am an
autodidact economist; that is, I am self-taught. If I see far it is
because I am standing on the feet of giants. Second is that a Goldwater
Republican can and should stand up for liberty by voting not for
Tweedledum, but instead for Michael
Badnarik, Libertarian candidate for President. He won't get
elected, not in America's winner-take-all two party system. But
voting for him will send a clear message that the Republican party
needs to move closer to the Libertarian party, just as the people who
voted for Nader caused the Democrats to move farther to the
anti-corporate, anti-market, anti-prosperity, pro-justice,
pro-equality, pro-poverty position. They didn't waste their votes,
and you won't be wasting yours by voting for Badnarik. The only way
to waste your vote is to vote for someone because his opponent is
worse.
I have no trouble seeing why MOGOWs would vote
Republican. I do, however, have trouble seeing why
anybody economically literate would vote Republican in
this election (as opposed to past ones, which were
understandable).
As the Economist magazine has
said, George W. has invented a new classification of politician: "Big
Government Conservative".
Even subtracting military & homeland security
spending, George W. has increased government
intervention in the economy by more than any president
since LBJ. He has thrown over the "small government"
Reaganism in favor of expansive intervention on the
economic level - against free trade (remember Steel
tariffs?), for expansion of government (notice the
government spending levels?), for increased transfer &
social payments (remember prescription drugs?).
I can completely understand if you wish to vote for
him because of his international policies; I am
consistently shocked when people let that or their
past voting patterns blind them to Bush's surprise
reversal on economic matters.
As one schooled in economics, you should be the first
to be educating your readers that the real "tax" is
government spending since it removes productive
resources from other uses; the level of "tax" you pay
only determines how much you pay now and how much gets
added to your national debt tab. Bush has been the
instigator behind many "deferred tax increases" while
trying to persuade us they are tax cuts.
I'm forced to vote for the Democrats this year, not
because Bush is too conservative, but surprisingly,
because he's too liberal.
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Fri, 03 Sep 2004
Ride starting Fri Sep 3 19:16:43 2004
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Tue, 31 Aug 2004
Ride starting Tue Aug 31 15:37:30 2004
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Ride starting Tue Aug 31 11:37:31 2004
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Fri, 27 Aug 2004
Ride starting Fri Aug 27 11:49:13 2004
I'm writing this three years later, mostly because it needs to be written.
Went for a ride on the Oswego Recreational Trail. I started at the official west end of
the trail, but from the looks of it, it goes further to the west than that.
It's in pretty good condition. All gravel, with only a little bit of mud.
The trail is broken in half, at Interstate 81. The railroad and I81 never
existed at the same time, so I81 never had any infrastructure for the
railroad. The trail ends at the Central New
York Chapter of the National Railway Historical Society just south
of Central Square.
The trail continues on the east side of I81 south of Mud Settlement.
There's a one-block section in Constantia which is now a field, but that's
only because there's a road right next to the trail. The
trail continues to Cleveland as a publicly owned trail. It continues beyond
that as a privately owned trail open for recreational use to the public.

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Thu, 26 Aug 2004
The Minimum Wage 3
Steven E. Landsburg
maintains "It is almost impossible to maintain the old argument that
minimum wages are bad for minimum-wage workers." Far from it. I
maintain that old argument, because the old argument is still true. To the extent that
minimum wages actually raise wages above the market-clearing level,
they create unemployment. I really don't care about the statistical
studies of actual minimum wage changes, because legislators carefully
ignore the moronic requests to double the
minimum wage. Instead, they wait until nearly everyone is being
paid more than the minimum wage, and raise it just a little. The
effects of these kinds of changes are not discoverable by statistical
studies because they are lost in the noise.
Steven also shows that he is indifferent to the fate of the people
who become permanently unemployable.
He claims that they don't care about having their job destroyed. He
says "... so what? Sure, you've lost your job. But don't forget, this
was a minimum-wage job in the first place.". How in the world can he
speak about, much less *for*, someone he has never spoken to? That
is, you see, the gist of the problem. The minimum wage destroys the
jobs of people who are not known to be willing to have their job
destroyed. This seems to me to be completely immoral.
Steven makes the point that published statistical surveys are not
representative. He's probably right that we should ignore them. We
should ignore them not for the reason he gives, but instead because
it's simply bad statistics to measure the results of ongoing
production. Instead you should run an experiment at the ends of the
parameters you wish to study. The trouble is that we've done that
experiment already, and whole industries got destroyed.
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Wed, 25 Aug 2004
Ride starting Wed Aug 25 10:54:03 2004
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Mon, 23 Aug 2004
The Minimum Wage 2
Morosoph
fails to get the minimum wage
argument correct. He makes three glaring errors. First he says
"Well, everybody will just raise their prices", ignoring the fact that
some will compete by cutting costs. Second, he admits that some poor
shmuck is going to lose his job because of the minimum wage. How can
that ever be moral? And yet people support the minimum wage
because it's just. Third, he thinks that "Decent statistical analysis
would clear the air..." It won't, and not for a lack of trying.
There are many reasons why a person might lose their job. The effect
of a minmum wage increase happens over time, not immediately. This
information is lost in the noise. There's no way to pull it out of
the noise except by raising the minimum wage by a lot. That's been
done before, and yes, many people lost their jobs, so no, we don't
need to run that experiment again.
The theory predicts it, the evidence supports it, the only question
is "how many people lose their jobs vs. how many people's income goes
up." But how can any moral person ask that question? How can it be
right to hurt some innocent person just so you can help other
people?
Morosoph's kind of economics is the kind that just pisses me right
off, because he Just Doesn't Understand how economics works in the
real world. He thinks that legislated laws can break natural laws.
He would probably vote in favor of changing the speed of light.
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Sun, 22 Aug 2004
Ride starting Sun Aug 22 08:23:11 2004
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Value and Transactions
I received email from a reader, asking me to resolve a dispute between her and a friend:
I hope you don't mind if I ask you a question: I am having a
little argument with a friend about if capitalism requires winners or
losers. He says no, and in fact, that losers hurt the market because
they have less money to spend.
I, on the other hand, think that capitalism requires, at least,
the opportunity to fail. From there it doesn't seem like much of a
leap to say that it requires losers. My questions is, what would a
capitalist economy look like if every transaction was a win-win
transaction? Would that be an ideal economy? Would it be sustainable?
What would happen?
I think that they are having trouble resolving this question
because it's a wrong question ("Ask the wrong question, you'll get a
wrong answer.") It can be answered trivially, so let me propose a
better question, and then answer that.
By definition, every transaction in a free market economy
is a win-win transaction. Both parties see more value in what the
other party has than in what they have, so they trade. In any other
circumstance, one or both value their current circumstances better,
and refuse to trade. The only kind of trade you can have in a free
market economy which leaves one of the parties immediately worse off
is when they are forced to trade against their will.
Leaning heavily on Ludwig von Mises' tome Human Action, remember
that the future is uncertain. People's opinions about the future
differ. People take actions based on those opinions. All actions
involve an element of risk. It's simply not possible in this world
for all actions to succeed. Some will pan out, some will come up dry
(very deliberately choosing to use those two cliches).
Every transaction is undertaken because the individual perceives a
benefit at the time. Therefore, her question is trivially answered
"every transaction in a free market (capitalist) economy already
is a win-win transaction." I don't think she'll be satisfied
with that answer, however, because I don't think the question is
right. I think a better question, following from the dispute between
her and her friend, is "Does the proper operation of capitalism rely
on some people making mistakes?"
The answer to that question is "No". It's more a matter of
mistakes being inevitable, and capitalism surviving them. If people
didn't make mistakes, then capitalism would work much better ... but
then again, so would socialism. Capitalism has a lot of flaws,
whereas socialism is perfect in its design and has no flaws. The
trouble is that imperfect people have to carry out both systems.
Capitalism trades off the constant presence of small mistakes and thereby
avoids the big mistakes that a socialist economy will make.
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Sat, 21 Aug 2004
Ride starting Sat Aug 21 18:30:37 2004
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Fri, 20 Aug 2004
Gregory Mankiw
Poor Gregory Mankiw. He points out a fundamental theorem of modern
economic science, and gets excoriated for it. I refer of course to
his statement that outsourcing American jobs was good for the country
in the long run.
He's right.
You can practically use people's reaction to his statement as a
litmus test of economic understanding. Does somebody understand the
least bit of economics? If so, then they agree with Gregory. If
not, then they disagree with him, often vocally and vehemently.
Economic flat-earthers, I call them.
America's strength is its willingness to lose jobs. Look at all
the buggy-whip jobs which don't exist anymore. Or whaling jobs.
Whole careers have been eliminated. Not just some jobs, but
all of them. Gone. Not overseas, but gone from the face of
the earth. Now, if we're willing to destroy jobs, why is it such a
Big deal if somebody else in some other country gets that job? This
whole outsourcing flap is like throwing something out, and then
finding that somebody has garbage-picked it.
Okay, you can make the point that we weren't really done with those
jobs. That people were still willing to do them. But here's the
catch: for what wages? There is no such thing as "unemployment", and
there is no such thing as "unemployment insurance". Something exists
that has that name, but it is not insurance. You cannot insure
against something over which you have full control. Insurance doesn't
work that way. Insurance covers you against things that you
cannot control.
The alternative to losing jobs is to keep jobs doing things that
people don't want. Besides the morale problems with doing something
that nobody wants, you also have a serious economic problem. You
can't have everyone doing useless work. Somebody has to be
productive to pay for those jobs that are no longer needed. What happens
when people in the former group move into the latter group? There's
no such thing as a perpetual motion machine.
You may question my assertion that "unemployment" does not exist,
particularly since you hear unemployment figures quoted weekly. Very
simply, yes, there are people who choose not to work for a particular
wage. They are not simply unemployed; they cannot find work for a
wage of their choosing. So, it doesn't make sense to talk about
"unemployment" without knowing more about the jobs that aren't being
taken. If a Wall Street stockbroker cannot find a job paying
$200,000/year, is he unemployed? According to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, yes, he is.
Let's take a case which might be more obvious. Let's say that a
laborer earning the minimum wage becomes unemployed. The stockbroker
can probably find a job by offering to work for less money. The
laborer doesn't have that option. He is not unemployed by choice, but
instead by fiat (and no, I don't mean that the Italian car
manufacturer refuses to hire him!). The source of minimum wage
unemployment is the minimum wage.
Now any non-economists must be livid. "Ask people to work for less
money!!! How can you do that?? You are cruel and heartless!!" Um,
no. Consider the plight of the poor unfortunate Indian worker who
gets paid far less to work in one of those Indian call
centers we've heard so much about. Instead of answering the phone as
Suskana, she has to answer the phone as Susan. Instead of working
during the day, she has to work when most of her countrymen are asleep
(IST == +1030, as opposed to an EST of -0500. Do the math). For this
onerous duty, she gets paid $2 an hour, for which no American would
work, could work. The thing is that her expenses are much lower. She
can eat out every day for those wages, and afford a nice three-bedroom
apartment in downtown Mumbai. Wages have no meaning unless you
consider what they'll buy.
An efficient economy is constantly driving down prices and profits.
This seems counterintuitive to anybody who lived through the inflation
of the 70's. Inflation, though, is a monetary phenomenon. While it
doesn't affect every price identically or immediately, it affects all
prices because it's a change in the supply of money. What matters is
the amount of time that you have to work to exchange for something of
value to you. That amount of work has been dropping more or less
steadily for the past five centuries. It may be that this year or
this decade is one in which that trend shows a temporary reversal. As
Mankiw said, in the long run, it's good for US jobs to be exported
overseas. What he didn't say, but which is equally true, is that it
may be painful in the short term when US jobs are exported overseas.
The good sense of "You do what you do best, I'll do what I do best,
and we'll trade" cannot be denied ... except by people without a good
sense of economics.
TM Lutas comments,
making the point that social relations create pressure to assist
transitions into new fields. Indeed yes, but if you try to restrict
job loss or tie training to the ability to eliminate jobs, then that
becomes an economic issue and worthy of criticism. Separately he
points out that sometimes other countries make a gift of their wealth
to us, and he claims that's a problem. Personally I think "Hey,
thanks for the wealth" is an adequate response, and the louder we say
it, the better.
TM Lutas comments
again, saying that I just don't get it. I think I do get it.
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Thu, 19 Aug 2004
Ride starting Thu Aug 19 19:34:40 2004
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Profit
It's surprising how many people don't understand the nature of
profit. They think that people who are wealthy must have
become so at the expense of other people. They think that if you have
more than other people, it must be that you profited at the expense
of another. I don't mean to dismiss their objections or their outrage.
But surely it can't be "profit" that they object to. Look at this:
- What if I have something you want more than I want?
- What if you have something I want more than you want?
- What if we trade?
- We're both better off.
- We've both profited from the trade.
- That profit wasn't at the expense of either of us.
- No third party was involved in this trade.
- Not all profit can be said to be "at the expense of another".
- So, they must actually be objecting to something other than profiting.
- For the sake of conversation and clarity, let's call that "orange".
Orange and profit, as attributes of human action, may be related.
That is, there may be actions which result in neither orange nor
profit, and actions which result in both orange and profit. If that's
the case, then they are related to each other, or said to be co-related,
correlated, or positively correlated. On the other hand, it may also
be that you have actions that result in orange but not profit, and
actions which result in profit but not orange. If that's always the
case, then they are negatively correlated. They're still correlated
because if profit is present, then orange is not, and if orange, then
not profit. It's just that the relationship is negative.
When profit is created by some actions, and other actions create
profit and orange, then there is no correlation between profit and
orange, because the presence of orange has nothing to do with the
presence of profit. Profit is always present, and only orange depends
on which action is chosen.
My point here being that you have profit without orange.
Presumably, since people are objecting to orange and calling it
profit, then you can have orange and profit at the same time. Profit
and orange are not correlated with each other, and yet people
criticize profit for being orange. I think they do this because most
actions are neither profitable nor orangable, and then lump the
remainder into just one category: profit or orange. The critics miss
the cases where profit is present but not orange.
Why don't they see those cases? Because, surely, not seeing those
cases is a symptom of bad economicing. Perhaps we can come closer to
identifying the nature of orange if we can discover why the case of
profit without orange is invisible to them or otherwise not a part of
their experience? I need to ruminate more on this, so I'll pick this
topic up later and link forward to it, and
back to here. Comments and guesses welcomed.
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Profit 2
Earlier I mused about some people's reaction to profit. I noted that profit didn't have the
qualities that they imputed to it. I guessed that they were actually
objecting to something else, which I called "orange" (so as not to
prejudice myself or anyone else as to its nature). Bob Johnson suggested that
orange==passivity, noting that the harder someone sweats for their
money, the more acceptable are their profits.
I think Bob is quite right here. The quintessential honest job is
that of a farmer, and you know that farmers put their backs into their
jobs. The next most honest job is a steelworker, another sweaty job.
A more "orange", or passive, job is secretary. Secretaries rarely get
sweaty; if they do, they're probably doing their job wrong. Still,
the pay isn't very good, so the lack of sweat can be forgiven. Still
more "orange" is the job of college professor. The perception is that
they only have to come in to the office a few hours a week, teach a
class or two or three, and rake in the bucks. All those perceptions
are wrong, but the perception of passivity is there.
Even more passive is an insurance company. Their profits are
assumed to come with no work. More passive yet is the job of
landlord, particularly a landlord who doesn't reinvest money in
repairs (but if those repairs won't result in more or retained income,
why spend money on repairs?) The most passive is someone who merely
invests in a company. Of course, if you invest passively, you get
some pretty passive profits. While there's condemnation of investors
when they're making money, there's little sympathy when an investor
loses money.
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Sun, 15 Aug 2004
Ride starting Sun Aug 15 19:32:39 2004
Posted [19:32] [Filed in:
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Cream skimming is to be expected
Andy McAdoo, General Manager of Nicholville Telephone Company,
writes, in part, about my earlier essay on
DANC:
The central issue of the DANC project should be cream skimming. DANC
discounts prices to large anchor users while ignoring the needs of
smaller, less attractive users. DANC's cream skimming approach is
widely viewed as anti-competitive by most knowledgeable regulators. By
removing the large "anchor" customers from market, DANC creates a
disincentive for service providers to invest in infrastructure and is
actually limiting choices for the small business community and consumers
in SLC.
Sorry, no, Andy, but free markets don't quite work that way (then
again, with a government agency under discussion, who's talking about
a free market, but I get ahead of myself). It's a serious problem,
but not for the reason you state. Cream skimming is a natural effect
in a free market, and one to be expected and enjoyed in its way.
Rich people have yachts. Everybody expects this to be the case.
Only the people who worry that some rich person, somewhere, might be
having fun oppose this (they are, by the way, the people responsible
for killing the yacht industry by taxing it out of existance). Most
people really don't care for yachting, so the price of yachts has
remained high.
Rich people also buy Cadillacs, or at least they used to. The
Cadillac still has the imprinteur of style, class, and just plain
wealth, even if there are other expensive cars competing with them. A
childhood friend of mine, Peter Goldring, had a father who worked on
Madison Avenue. They had a Cadillac (this was back in the 60's). It
was an amazingly plush and well-equipped automobile. It had automatic
windshield washers and electric windows.
I always wanted to own a car with windshield washers and electric
windows. I thought they were the neatest gadgets. I dreamed of being
wealthy enough to own a Cadillac with those features. Of course, now
I own a fairly pedestrian Subaru Outback with windshield washers and
electric windows. You can't buy the car without them. It also has --
get this -- electric seat heaters. Not even Cadillacs had them back
in the 60's.
Was Cadillac cream skimming? Yup. Was there anything wrong with
that? Nope. They were specifically targetting a wealthy minority
with advanced features and benefits, with no intention of ever
providing them to the rest of us.
Why, then, do we have them now? The answer, simply enough, is free
markets. In a free market, new things are always provided to wealthy
people first. In time, entrepreneurs find a way to reduce the cost of
those things, and sell them to everyone else.
What is wrong with the DANC proposed cream skimming? It is that it
intends to operate outside free markets. First of all, they plan to
sell to BOCES, which are about as socialist, centrally-planned
institution as you can find in America (where is McCarthy when you
really need a hearing?) apart from Congress itself. I'm not going
to get into BOCES right now, since I've already ripped them up and down, and back up again.
But second of all, DANC is not a profit-seeking institution. They
could, quite reasonably, stop at providing Internet access to the
schools, hospitals and local governments. They don't have
stockholders clamoring for the last bit of profit in a market. Andy
is upset, and reasonably so, because DANC is planning on monopolizing
the marketplace with subsidized (paid-for by grants) Internet. It
would be too bad for Andy if DANC was a private company and was able
to out-compete him. But they're not. DANC has their hand in the
public till.
After all, once you've provisioned Internet access to the schools,
hospitals, and local governments, what's left? Fibermark? Resnick
Mattress Outlets? Kinney's? Wisebuys? Potters? In a competitive
marketplace, a private DANC would end up taking only part of the
market, leaving some for Nicholville Telephone, and Verizon, and
Time-Warner. Everyone would skim off whatever cream they could, and
in order to gain continued growth in profits, they would have to sell
to the little customers who are less profitable to begin with.
So no, Andy should attack DANC for having their fingers in the
public till (and that includes accepting money from BOCES) rather than
attacking the idea of cream skimming. Given the chance, he'd do it
himself. Or try, but so would everyone else who owned a right-of-way
on the utility poles of St. Lawrence County.
Posted [12:41] [Filed in:
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Price, Cost, and Marginal Value
Steve den Beste talks about economics.
He does a pretty good job, but falls down on the parts he's not really
talking about.
In a free market, over the long run, price == cost == marginal
value. Everything that den Beste says about prices is true only in
the short term. In the short term, the price is going to be higher
than the cost in order to pay the entrepreneur who set up the
business. However, that profit gets competed out, so that in time,
the price of something equals the sum of the costs of it. Gotta
remember that the cost must include everything: cost of goods sold,
rent, power, light, salaries, interest and dividends. Interest is
rent on money lent, and dividends are rent on capital ownership.
Neither are profits to a business; the business pays them out.
The marginal value of something equals the price of it. If you
valued the next one of something more than the price, you'd buy
another one. There are obviously quantizing problems here (for most
people, the first car is the only one whose marginal value exceeds its
price), but if you average out the purchasing decision, it will close
in on the price. For bulk-purchased commodities like loose candy, the
value (to you!) of the last candy you slipped into the jar is equal to
the price of it.
den Beste said that people have to value something more than its
price or they won't buy. That's just a specific case of the marginal
value being the value of the very first one.
So, all that said, is den Beste wrong about the inverse network
value? Not at all. He is specifically not talking about a completely
free market. He's talking about a market where the Rolls-Royce
company has a monopoly on producing Rolls-Royce cars. The whole point
behind trademark law is to allow producers to charge monopoly prices. In a
completely free market, when Rolls-Royce tried to restrict production
to keep prices up, other people would step in and create more
Rolls-Royces. Not clear that anybody wants markets to be that
free.
Update: Ron writes in with some confusion over marginal value: "The
marginal value equalling the price depends on den Beste being right.
It's the last customer that has value equalling price. If the price
rises, he drops off and there's a new last customer at the higher
price. If the price falls, another customer comes on and the former
last customer makes a profit. All the customers but the last make a
profit."
Ron, marginal value refers to the value to *you* of buying yet
another one of the things. In the case that Steve is talking about
(cars), very very few people buy more than one at a time. Therefore
the marginal value in this case is going to be the same as the value.
Quite clearly the value must be equal to or exceed the price for
someone to purchase something. My point being that the marginal value
might only equal the price. In the long term, in a free market, with
something that doesn't suffer too badly from quantizing effects, it
makes sense for somebody to keep adding items to their cart until the
marginal value *equals* the price. This is true even if the first one
purchased is the last one purchased.
Since I'm on the topic, what happens if the seller is deliberately
quanitizing the price so as to "steal" profit from the consumer by
arranging things so that the last one purchased always ends up with
marginal value equal to the price? This is where the beauty of
competition shines. Another less greedy seller could rearrange his
sales so that he takes only half of the profit from that sale, and
shares the other half of the profit with the customer (e.g. by
offering a discounted price for buying that larger quantity).
I should note that transaction costs interfere with causing the
price to exactly equal the cost, and the marginal value to exactly
equal the price. Transaction costs suck, but then so does
friction.
Posted [12:37] [Filed in:
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Too Many Laws
We live in an age when legislatures create laws from scratch. Laws
were not always created de novo. Earlier, laws were discovered rather
than created. A conflict between two parties was seen as a problem to
be solved. A solution was discovered by wise people working on the
problem, just as are solutions to most other problems. Once a good
solution was discovered, it would be applied to all further instances
of that problem. Thus was the law born.
Legislatures, on the other hand, make up laws even when no problem
is to be seen. This has a well-known corrupting influence on
legislatures, what with people convincing a legislature that a
personal or corporate problem is actually a public problem. Beyond
that, though, a legislature, in my experience, will create more laws
than it is willing to pay to enforce.
By corrupt, I mean that they take money for a service with no
intention of supplying that service.
Having a surfit of laws and a deficit of funding puts the executive
body into a quandry. Since it cannot enforce all the laws, it must
pick and choose. Once it has this discretion, it has the ability to
grant favors. With freedom comes responsibility, or irresponsibility
in this case.
Now, I don't want anybody to take this as a blanket condemnation
of all executive bodies. I'm merely pointing out the economics of the
situation. The legislature (itself an easily corrupted organization)
has created an incentive for the executive body to be corrupted as
well.
Posted [12:23] [Filed in:
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The Cost of a Man
What is the cost of a man? Poets and philosophers have tried to
answer that question for centuries. Give an economist space to try.
The cost of a person's death is the loss of their productive
output. Some people are very much more productive than other
people. A Hemingway, a Mozart, a Monet, or an Einstein, all have had a
greater impact on society than a Smith, a Baker, or a Barber. Can we
then say that some people's death would have cost society more than
others? Only weakly. Once someone is dead, they're dead. The future
is closed to us; their future is closed to us.
We cannot value a person by looking at their death. We can only
value a person by looking, not at their life, but what they would
trade for their life. People do dangerous things all the time.
Driving down the road is dangerous enough. People are trading (a risk
to) their life all the time. That means that we can conclude that
people do not value their lives infinitely.
How to determine how much someone values their own life? You can
look at it by how much life insurance they buy. That's not a very
good metric, though, because people are not often in such a risk of
their lives that they purchase all the insurance they need. A better
metric is to look at the actions of people with hazardous jobs, for
example an explosives truck driver. They're much more likely to look
at the risk, and decide how much risk they're willing to bear for how
long. That risk, carried out, is how much they value their lives.
I won't hold you in suspense any longer. The figure comes out to
about $1.2 million. It's not an unreasonable number. It's about $26K
per year over a 45 year productive lifetime.
Thanks to David
D. Friedman for doing the actual research behind this, and
publishing it in his excellent book Hidden Order.
Posted [12:13] [Filed in:
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The Environment is a meaningless term
There is no such thing as "the environment" from an economics point
of view. People use that word, but it's poorly defined. There is
only property. Some property is land, some is air, and some is water.
Some owners of property are careful to prevent others from damaging
their property, some are not.
Economists study markets. Markets only trade in property. If you
want to examine something from an economics point of view, you have to
consider that thing to be property. The defining characteristic of
property is that it has a single owner. The owner gets to decide who
does what with the property. These are called property rights. Some
owners are of course not individuals, e.g. partnerships, or
corporations, or governments. Still, the owner of property acts with
a single voice when it comes to trading that property.
If you listen to some people, you would hear them talk about "the
environment". They want to protect "the environment." Specifically,
what do they mean by that? It usually means that they are against
pollution (it means other things as well, but let's ignore those other
things). What is pollution, though? Pollution is anything that they
think shouldn't be there; for example noxious gasses or liquids or
solids. Pollution is illegal when it is trespass. Sometimes
pollution is not trespass because the property owner has a reason to
accept the pollution. The difficulty is that not every property owner
chooses to prosecute the trespass.
Why should these people care about "the environment?" After all,
it's not their property -- it's the property owner's problem.
Sometimes they care because they are a part-owner of the property.
It's owned by a government that's under their control (or
vice-versa), and the government is failing to take good care of the
property. Sometimes they care because they are subjected to
externalities of the pollution. Every use of property has
externalities; the existance of externalities is not sufficient reason
to discontinue that use of the property. The most interesting reason
is due to the way in which we have split up ownership of land.
Ownership of land
Property rights may not be completely unique in the same volume of
space. That is, you may have the right to do one thing with a piece
of property, while I may have the right to do a different thing. For
example, you may own the surface rights to land, and I may own the
mineral rights. The US government owns the right to fly an airplane
over that land. The same land has multiple owners of the property
rights.
As every land-owner knows, one of the things you have to do with
your land is pay taxes on it. You can reasonably view that right as
"the right to collect property taxes". Some states are willing to
sell you that right, e.g. Nevada. You can, when you purchase the set
of rights we commonly call "ownership of land", you can pay extra (a
lot extra) to purchase the right to collect property taxes.
The existance of this right to collect property taxes causes a
problem. What if the property taxes are not paid? What happens then
is that the property tax owner can get a lein on the rest of the
owners. If the taxes become large enough, they can take possession of
the land and sell it. Aye, here's the rub. What if the owner of the
surface rights has extinguished the value of his right by allowing
pollution? The owner of the property rights does not wish to see his
value destroyed by another, and so he will take legal action to
prevent the extinguishing.
This interferes in the market by preventing some worthwhile uses of
land. What if someone could concentrate pollution on just one bit of
land in exchange for money? That would be worthwhile because it would
keep the pollution away from others. It would concentrate the
pollution so that if the pollution becomes valuable it is available
for easy recovery. After all, Pennsylvania farmers thought that oil
springs were a nasty nuisance.
Government Pollution
Except in western states where water is scarce, both the air and
water have long been considered to be owned "by the public." Before
governments were forced to take notice by their constituents, they
were poor shepherds of their property. Air and water pollution by
industrial processes are well-known problems. Note, though, that when
water is privately owned, it is taken care of. This is the same
effect you see when pollution of privately-owned land is not
tolerated.
Still, calling air and water "the environment" confuses and
conceals the issue. It's not an "environment", it's property, and the
owner of that property is the only party that should be stopping
pollution.
Posted [12:06] [Filed in:
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Sat, 14 Aug 2004
Ride starting Sat Aug 14 16:00:15 2004
Posted [16:00] [Filed in:
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Mon, 09 Aug 2004
Ride starting Mon Aug 9 20:03:36 2004
Posted [20:03] [Filed in:
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Sun, 08 Aug 2004
Ride starting Sun Aug 8 18:53:13 2004
Posted [18:53] [Filed in:
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Fri, 06 Aug 2004
Ride starting Fri Aug 6 18:50:46 2004
Posted [18:50] [Filed in:
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Thu, 05 Aug 2004
Ride starting Thu Aug 5 18:40:51 2004
Posted [18:40] [Filed in:
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Airport Insecurity
I got frisked by the Portland
airport TSA folks. Somebody forgot to tell them that modern
batteries and explosives are mostly the same thing. They saw my
four-NiMH-D-Cell battery box on the x-ray, and thought it was Semtex,
a plastic explosive. I think their chemical detector also id'ed it as
Semtex, but nobody ever explicitly said that to me.
While they were gingerly pawing through my possessions as if they
might explode, I noted aloud how disconcerting it was to see them
pawing through my possessions as if they might explode. Somehow they
turned that into some kind of bomb threat, because they called down
their manager, the airport administration, the Portland police, and a
Delta representative on me. While I'm not stupid enough to bring up
the subject of bombs at airport security, watching somebody act as if
my stuff might explode weakened my resistance to said stupidity.
It was only about a half-hour delay, however, it was a half-hour
during which seven members of the security infrastructure paid sole
and exclusive attention to me. It's obvious to me that I was a false
positive. It was less obvious to them that I was a false positive;
nonetheless I was a false positive for their tests.
One thing that economics teaches us is that you can't do everything
at any one moment. At any one moment, the resources available to you
are limited, and you must choose how you wish to allocate those
resources. If you do one thing, you cannot do another. If you chase
down a false positive, that leaves less resources to deal with other
positives. Computer security folks are well aware of denial of
service attacks. I think that the Transportation Security
Administration folks are less aware.
Let's say that I wanted to get something through security. The
best way to do it is to try sending pristine folks through security in
a way that will trigger a false positive. While security is dealing
with them, they go through security themselves, to find out what level
of false positives are needed to overwhelm security. At some level,
the security folks are likely to start sending people through with
decreased scrutiny.
Of course, the whole increased airport security thing is a moronic
waste of time. No hijacker would dream of hijacking a US airplane.
Everyone would assume the worst, and fight the hijacker for their
lives. There was a reason why there were four sets of simultaneous
hijackings, and why Flight 93 ended up on the ground in Shanksville,
PA instead of Washington DC. Airports were secure enough before; what
was not secure was the instructions given to flight crews to cooperate
with hijackers. Bombs on airplanes are still a risk, but for killing
people, you can't beat a crop duster flying over any outdoor festival.
We have built a Maginot Line in
our airports. You can be sure that the next terrorist attack will
come in through the Ardennes Forest or the Low Countries. The
economics virtually guarantees it.
Posted [03:06] [Filed in:
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Sat, 31 Jul 2004
Ride starting Sat Jul 31 23:32:13 2004
Posted [23:32] [Filed in:
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Ride starting Sat Jul 31 17:09:04 2004
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Tue, 27 Jul 2004
Hillary has a zero EIQ
"My" (I certainly didn't vote for her; just because lots of other
people did, that doesn't create any ownership for me over her) State
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton writes:
While the bill focuses on
transportation, Mrs. Clinton is selling it as economic stimulation.
Every $1 billion in highway construction creates 46,500 jobs, she
said. "This is a jobs bill."
Her statement is true and false. She is correct in saying that
it's a jobs bill. She is incorrect in saying that when the government
spends money, that creates jobs. In fact, it's likely that it
destroys jobs. The money that the government spends didn't come from
nowhere. It came from taxpayers, who now have less to spend on
whatever they wanted to buy. Those purchases would have created jobs
as well, and everyone would have gotten what they wanted most.
Instead, if a highway is constructed, some people will get what they
want, and some people will not.
If you want to have a high Economist Intelligence Quotient (EIQ),
you have to avoid these pedestrian errors. When you get really basic
things like this wrong, as Hillary did, then you're starting from
zero, as she is.
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Sun, 25 Jul 2004
Ride starting Sun Jul 25 16:50:26 2004
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Sat, 24 Jul 2004
Ride starting Sat Jul 24 18:44:43 2004
Posted [18:44] [Filed in:
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Thu, 22 Jul 2004
Universal Disservice
Andy Oram, who ought to know better, since he isn't a fool or loon,
posits that Universal
Service is a good thing. After all, he says, many other things
are subsidized to good effect -- why shouldn't telecommunications be
subsidized? As a perfect example of why subsidies are wrong from the
start, look at the subsidized bus service between Plattsburg and
Watertown (NY). Riders pay $10.30 to ride from Canton to Watertown,
and $15.90 from Canton to Plattsburg, but the ride costs $115.
I think that, as penance, Andy should have to ride the bus himself,
and whenever somebody tries to get on it, offers them a check for $115
if they'll find another way to get there. Anybody think he won't get
any takers? Think anybody will refuse?
That's not his only mistake. He praises the E-Rate program (in
spite of its flaws) saying "Tens of thousands of institutions have
received Internet access thanks to the fund." He is making the
classic non-economist mistake of only seeing what exists, what has
happened, what has occurred. Give yourself ten points if you
immediately saw the flaw in his reasoning. Economists realize that
everything is a trade-off. If you do one thing, you don't get to do
another thing. So, no action can be evaluated by itself. It must be
evaluated in the light of what else could have happened. "What would
have happened with those E-Rate dollars?" is the question Andy failed
to ask.
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Sat, 17 Jul 2004
Ride starting Sat Jul 17 19:38:02 2004
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Wed, 14 Jul 2004
The Magic Wand of Government
Orson Scott Card is nominally a writer of Science
Fiction. In his recent essay covering Optimism,
Pessimism, War, and Oil, he gets the economics wrong. He insists
that government has a magic wand which it can wave to create the next
source of energy beyond oil. He wants government to wave that magic wand.
Orson needs to get a clue. Every time the government waves its
magic wand, it's a swing-and-a-miss. Look at canals. Not a one of
'em made money except for the Erie, and it only made money if you
assume that the capital that went into it had no better use. Look at
railroads. The ones that the government subsidized didn't make money,
and the ones that it didn't need to subsidize did.
Orson has several suggestions for what people should do. The major
point that he's missing is the time value of oil. He suggests that we
should preserve it for the future, because it will be more valuable
then. If he was right, then people who have oil in the ground would
be happy to leave it there in anticipation of a higher price later.
They don't do that, though. Instead, they sell it. They sell it
because they expect that oil, like every other commodity, will be
cheaper and more available in the future.
Orson might be right. The people who stand to make a lot of
money if he's right are doing the exact opposite of what he suggests.
I think, therefore, that it's most likely that he's mostly wrong.
Update: Oleg Dulin comments,
wondering how future value can be brought into the present.
Ordinarily the way that is done is through property rights and futures
contracts. If you own something, and you think it will be worth more
tomorrow, you won't sell it today. But what if you need money today?
If your property rights are secure, then you can sell a futures
contract. You agree to sell something in the future for a price
greater than the current price, but less than what you actually think
it will sell for then. You accept the payment today, and transfer
ownership tomorrow.
The problem that Oleg doesn't anticipate is: what if your property
rights are not secure? What if you are the corrupt ruler of an oil
sheikdom, and are shaking your country down for the oil? You can
still sell a futures contract. It currently discounts the price as
described above. The discount is increased by the unlikelihood that
your country will actually transfer the oil after you have transferred
the profits to your Swiss bank account.
Before you get too smug about those corrupt oil sheikdoms, consider
that the same mechanism applies in an elective democracy, in spades.
When a politician is elected for only four years, he has no guarantee
that he will continue to have the same power beyond the election.
Elected politicians cannot afford to waste time taking advantage of
their power. An oil sheik can reasonably rip off his country for the
rest of his natural life, and so can afford to take the long-term
view.
Posted [02:51] [Filed in:
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Mon, 12 Jul 2004
The Minimum Wage really does destroy jobs
Both Brad
DeLong and Steven
Landesburg get the minimum wage argument wrong (thanks to Tyler
Cowen for pointing me to them. Don
Bordreaux has also blogged on it recently.). The theory predicts
that a minimum wage will destroy jobs. You sell the most of something
when you're free to set your own price. If somebody forces you to set
it higher or lower, you'll sell less or more than you would like. If
somebody forces you to sell your labor for a higher price than you'd
like, you'll sell less of your labor. This isn't Economics 101, it's
Economics 001. If it's not true, all economists go home and cry into
our beer because our work is all completely wrong. In order to arrive
at a conclusion that goes against the theory, you need very good
empirical data. If you want to prove that light can travel faster
than the speed of light, you need very good evidence. That data
doesn't exist.
The data is in fact crummy given the size of the increases in the
minimum wage. First, the minimum wage intentionally affects very few
workers. Second, the minimum wage is only increased after it isn't
really necessary. Third, you can count the people who got more money,
but you can't count the people who lost their jobs.
I took a course in statistics when I worked in production
engineering at Hewlett-Packard. They emphasized several points. In
order to get good data, you can't just monitor your processes. You
have to run experiments at the limits of your processes. You have to
replicate to reduce experimental error. You have to randomize to
eliminate changes over time.
So, in order to answer the minimum wage question, you can't just
increase the minimum wage by a few cents and then go measure
everything you possibly can measure. You have to both completely
eliminate it, and double it. You have to do it for two
randomly-selected populations. Nobody wants to run that experiment.
Everybody knows what would happen if the minimum wage was doubled:
Huge numbers of people would lose their jobs. That's exactly what
happened in Haiti in the 1930's when a continental US minimum wage law
accidentally applied to Haiti. So, really, everybody who refuses to
run the experiment has the answer firmly in their head; it's just in
their heart that they refuse to acknowledge it.
Posted [02:58] [Filed in:
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Thu, 01 Jul 2004
The minimum-wage debate: WWJP
Sigh. Tom Blackburn is right and wrong, but mostly wrong in his
column on the minimum-wage
debate. He spends two thirds of his column summarizing the debate
among economists, which is a waste of time. Only incompetent
economists fail to acknowledge that the minimum wage creates unemployment to the
extent that it actually raises wages above the market-clearing price.
He does this in order to conclude that the argument for the minimum
wage is moral, not economic. The thing is, he's right, it is
a moral argument!
Economists do not make moral judgements. They tell you what will
happen as a result of an action that you choose. It is up to you to
decide whether those actions will be moral. Tom is trying to say that
he can ignore economics when it comes to making his moral judgement.
He has found economists who disagree with the truth of the matter.
This is necessary for him, because Tom's morals require that paying a
minimum wage only be a cost to businesses. If he was to respect good
economics, he would have to conclude that the minimum wages are
immoral. How can it be moral to help some low-paid workers at the
cost of hurting lower-paid workers by causing them to be
unemployable?
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Tue, 29 Jun 2004
India, Inc.
Just got back from my third trip to India. I've been working with
Rediff on Rediffmail for going on
five years. When I first went there, they
had 125K users. When I left ten days later, they had 143K users. Now
they're pushing 30M users if they're not there already, with terabytes
and terabytes of disks spinning and servers and servers handing out
webmail.
On my first visit, we were troubled by two strikes. One was
actually not so bad, as it was the taxis and I had a company car and
driver (if you can drive in Mumbai, you can drive
in Boston; the converse is not a given) at my disposal. Without
the badly-tuned diesel taxis on the road, the air cleaned up
first-rate. But still, Mumbai basically shut down for the day, and
the taxi drivers made their point. Similarly, truck drivers went on
strike the same week, and delayed shipment of the servers we needed
for the cluster.
The strikes were caused by the government trying to increase the
price of diesel fuel to match the market price they had to purchase it
at. Clearly, it was the opinion of the strikers that they should not
be subject to market discipline. Perhaps if they were, the taxi
drivers would have taken their taxis in for a tune-up to increase
their fuel efficiency. Pollution is not just trespass, it's waste.
Several of the people I spoke to said that conditions for business
were improving in India. This is good. It is VERY good. All the
socialist redistribution in the world won't help if there is no
capitalist production to redistribute. More than that, a wealthier
economy helps everybody by creating surplus. This increased
prosperity increases the price pressure on the only truly scarce
commodity: human attention.
India is reducing its tariffs, making it easier to start a
business, eliminating anti-competitive laws, and privatizing
businesses. They still have a long way to go. They gave up about
fifty years of development while pursing a socialist fantasy. But
they are making progress, and we should cheer them on. Go India!
Huzzah! Huzzah! Huzzah!
Posted [01:16] [Filed in:
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Sun, 27 Jun 2004
Law without government
If I had my choice of perfect worlds, there would be no government
in it. People purchase protection from a private company of their
choice. This company, in turn, subscribes to a system of laws which
is privately written. Independent judges interpret the law fairly, or
they don't get the business next time. Some legal systems will come
into conflict, which will be resolved by a payment in one direction or
another. The price one pays for a legal system determines the amount
of conflict one bears. Poor people obviously get a cheap one which
doesn't allow for much conflict. But it does cover them against the
essentials -- no murder, no theft. In the end they get more justice
by buying it in an efficient market than what they're currently
getting through government -- arguably less than zero.
There's a lot of reasons to expect that this would result in better
laws.
Obviously, in my perfect world, some parents still hurt their own
children, so there must be provision in people's laws to protect
children against their parents as well as others. And equally
obviously, some people will seek to employ inordinate violence against
their attackers, so there must be provision in people's laws against
that as well. How do I know that these provisions will be there?
Because people will purchase a subscription to a legal system without
knowing whether it will be used for or against them. So, they will
shop carefully. Will they make mistakes even though I'm supposing a
perfect world? Sure they will. But the mistakes come from their own
choice of legal system, and they have the power to correct that.
None of us has the power to correct our governmental legal system
single-handedly. A private legal system, on the other hand, would
quickly triangulate on what the majority desire for justice. The
legal systems that gave out the justice that most people wanted would
be cheapest, which would tend to bring in people from the sidelines to
the same majority legal system. In practice most legal
systems would be very similar to each other, and would be very close
to optimal. This should be contrasted with the current governmental
systems, which tend to produce laws optimized for special
interests.
If you want an example of how this might work, take an extremely
difficult example -- abortion. Clearly many people want the freedom
to abort their babies. Many people also think that's murder. They
would each choose legal systems that allowed or disallowed abortion.
How, then, would these legal systems work? How could you both allow
and prohibit abortion?
Let's follow an example. A woman gets pregnant and decides to
carry the baby to term. Fine. She's not disobeying anybody's laws.
Let's say that she decides to have an abortion. Obviously she hasn't
chosen the anti-abortion legal system. She would contract with a
doctor for an abortion. However, the pro-choice legal system has been
paid to include a term that says that an anti-abortion protection firm
will be informed of such a contract. Maybe the woman doesn't like
this very much, but she chose that system, and besides it made her
legal system cheaper. Now the anti-abortion firm knows that she's
serious about getting an abortion. They offer to buy her all the
medical care she needs to deliver the baby, and will find parents
willing to adopt the baby.
Now here's where it gets tricky. Exactly what happens depends on
exactly how many people are in favor of abortion choice and how much
they're willing to spend to get their way. Let's say that the
anti-abortion people are in the minority. They won't have the
resources to help every women, but they'll have it for some, as many
as possible. So, even though they're in the minority, they'll get
their way more often than they do now.
Let's suppose it's the other way around -- that the pro-choicers are
in the minority. It's likely that their legal system will be more
expensive, because it includes the choice of abortion. It also
requires them to seek counselling before getting an abortion. It also
imposes a mandatory 7-day waiting period. Both of these were
purchased by the anti-abortion majority, who have large resources at
their disposal. A license to have an abortion might cost some serious
amount of dollars.
Do poor people get screwed by a private market for law? Yes,
absolutely, no question about it. If they weren't screwed, you'd have
a hard time calling them "poor", or saying that "poor" was a bad thing
to be. The harder question to answer is whether they are screwed more
or less under a system of governmental legislated law as under a
system of purchased private market law. At least under private law,
somebody can purchase a subscription and donate it to them. If you
think nobody would do that, you must first take your magic wand and
wave away the existance of the Carnegie libraries.
In this manner, through a market for law, you have people purchasing,
not voting for, law systems. To the extent that they purchase
non-controversial, majority law, it's cheap. If they want to do
something most people disagree with, it costs them money, and not many
people can afford to do it. Contrast this with the current system
where every man has a vote regardless of how strong he feels about the
subject, and every decision is decided regardless of how many people
feel strongly about it.
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Protectionism
New Jersey State Senator Shirley Turner has done it again. Oh, I
don't mean that she's ever done it before, although she probably has.
She's proposed Yet Another short-sighted law. She's "protecting jobs
in this country."
Bullshit. Pure, unmitigated bullshit. Sorry, Shirley, dear, but I
gotta call it the way I see it. And you are full of it. You aren't
"protecting jobs in this country." You're protecting visible jobs and
destroying invisible jobs.
Here's the problem: it's visible when an employer shifts a job
performing the same task from one place to another. The people of the
first place tend to get resentful of the people of the second place.
Don't matter if it's a Potsdam job that moved to Canton (e.g. the
County Health Services), or a New England job that moved to the South
(e.g. garments -- incidentally the cause of northern support for
minimum wage laws), or a New Jersey job that moved to India.
What they fail to see is the new job "taken away" from the people
of the second place. Inevitably, when there is free trade, trade
balances. It MUST balance. If the state of New Jersey pays Indians
dollars to do something for it, those Indians now have dollars.
They're going to spend those dollars somewhere. Maybe they'll spend
them buying tiny Japanese cars? But now the Japanese have dollars.
Eventually, somehow, those dollars that New Jersey spent are going to
come back to the US, and create a job for somebody.
Generally speaking, everyone is best off if they do what creates
the most value, and trade for everything else. This isn't news. Adam
Smith wrote it as our country was being formed. It seems very strange
that our elected representatives -- who in theory are wiser than the
common rabble and better able to take a wider and longer-term view --
don't know that.
Fortunately, there are a limited number of economic ignoramuses
like Sen. Turner in the New Jersey legislator, and the bill hasn't
made it out of the committee yet. Let us hope that it never does!
Posted [14:31] [Filed in:
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Thu, 17 Jun 2004
Inflation 2
Inflation is a description of an
decrease in the price of money; nothing else. Den Beste gets it wrong
when he attributes
inflation to the price of oil. It doesn't affect the point of his
posting, but why not get all the details right?
UPDATE: Joseph writes, saying that Den Beste is correct because the price
of so many things is dependent upon oil that when oil gets more expensive,
so does everything else, and rising prices is inflation. No, that's
not right. Increasing prices are a symptom of inflation, but they are not
inflation. Other things can cause prices to rise or fall. See the chapter on
Inflation from
_Economic Freedom & Interventionism by von Mises.
Posted [01:26] [Filed in:
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Sun, 13 Jun 2004
How do you determine if Lemon Laws are useful?
Earlier, I wrote about Lemon Laws.
These laws exist to solve the problem of cars which require "too many"
repairs. The problem is not that the seller does not honor a
warranty. The assumption is that the existance of problems -- even
repaired problems -- is evidence of the existance of more problems.
You can see this in the computer software field. Some programs are
written securely and never have any security problems. Other programs
were written without security as a goal, and trying to bolt on
security later proves difficult.
So, the problem exists. The question for an economist is what to
do about it. I can answer that question (and I may be right or
wrong), but the process of answering it is more interesting than the
answer itself. Leo writes to
tell me that car dealers often try to cheat their customers. That
fact (which, really, surprises nobody) is almost completely besides
the point.
First, interesting economic things happen in the middle, not the
edges. It's not likely that any businessman is completely honest or
completely dishonest. Instead, some businessmen will be more honest
than other businessmen. So, saying that car dealers often try to
cheat their customers says nothing. The real question is whether more
honest car dealers make more money than dishonest car dealers. If
they do, then the tendency will be for honest car dealers to
out-compete dishonest ones. If they don't, then there's clearly a
business opportunity for someone.
Every trade in a free market generates a surplus in value for both
parties. You could argue that a "fair
trade" is one in which the surplus is equal. Most often the
surplus isn't equal. Sometimes it's a seller's market, where the
seller sets the price, for example in an emergency. Any time the surplus (on either
party's side) is large enough, it will attract more entrants into the
market. This results in competition and tends to reduce the surplus.
Markets work best when people buy things often, and when there are
multiple suppliers. This isn't the case when you're buying a car,
which people may do only five times in their life. Automobile
companies try to reduce competition by only establishing a limited
number of dealerships in a region. As a general rule, competition
works well because experts are competing against experts. You may not
know how to bottle up soda, but the experts are coke, pepsi, and many
other cola suppliers do. By competing against each other for your
business, they keep each other honest. That competition is lacking in
the automobile market.
There oughtta be a law!
You've no doubt hear the clarion cry "There oughtta be a law!"
uttered in response to some inequity or another. You shouldn't be
surprised to hear me question that request. Laws and markets work in
very different manners. For any arbitrary problem that a market has
trouble solving, it may be that a legal solution works better or
worse. Far too many people assume that a law can solve any problem
which is not solved to their satisfaction by markets.
For example, you could attempt to solve this problem by passing
various laws related to automobile quality representation and
guarantees. Or you buy insurance from a company which will buy your
car if it needs too many repairs. Since the company doesn't want to
lose money, it will charge you more to insure a car from a company
which often makes lemons. You could use that as a clue not to buy
that company's cars, or if the cars are special, just knuckle down and
pay the higher premiums. Such a company doesn't exist right now.
That's because the lemon laws have legislated such a company out of
existance. Or, at least, they ensure that no such company could make
money.
The biggest problem with passing a law is that you lose
information. Since everybody has to comply with the law, there is no
way to find out if a more or less strict law would work better. With
a market solution, you have competition to provide the best solution.
People are free to experiment with different solutions.
Posted [01:07] [Filed in:
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Fri, 04 Jun 2004
Ride starting Fri Jun 4 17:38:02 2004
Posted [17:38] [Filed in:
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Ride starting Fri Jun 4 11:49:49 2004
Bicycled the Rivergate trail from Philadelphia to Clayton
today. It was excellent, except for three closed sections. Had the
foolish county governments bought up the right of way (rather than
selling it off for taxes as they have so often done), there would be a
very nice continuous off-road trail.

Posted [11:49] [Filed in:
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Ride starting Fri Jun 4 10:25:23 2004
Posted [10:25] [Filed in:
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Thu, 03 Jun 2004
Dividends
Dividends and capital gains are now taxed at
the same (low) rate. Heretofore, capital gains (an increase in the
value of a stock) have been taxed at a lower rate than dividends
(corporate earnings distributed to stockholders). This led
corporations to prefer capital gains over dividends. Over time,
companies have ceased to pay out dividends because they can deliver
more value to stockholders by increasing the price of their stock.
This has led to some poor practices. Paying dividends is a good
thing, for several reasons.
First, because capital -- deferred expenditures -- is the only
thing that makes society wealthier. Even if you think we should soak
the rich, that doesn't work if there are no rich to soak. If you
think that a rising tide lifts all boats (which is a code phrase for
"Don't tax the rich; the rich create more jobs by spending their money
than the government will.") then you definitely want society to be
wealthier. Taxing dividends is a form of capital consumption.
Second, because dividends keep a company honest. Enron got into
trouble because they falsified earnings. The value of a company is
based on its earnings. By creating book (accounting) earnings, they
increased the value of their stock. This encouraged people to invest
more money in Enron. If, instead, investors demanded dividends,
Enron's duplicity would have been discovered sooner. False earnings
cannot be turned into cash and paid out.
Update: Marc points out that false earnings can be turned
into debt. He's right. For example, a company committing fraud can
sell more stock based on their false earnings. This amounts to a
classic Ponzi scheme -- paying off early investors with new
investment. Or they could convince a bank, on the strength of their
earnings, to give them a line of credit. Let's say, as a weaker form
of my point, that having to pay dividends eliminates the ranker forms
of fraud, but not all of them.
Third, because the stockholder has chosen wisely by purchasing a
stock that produced earnings. Obviously, some stocks do not generate
the earnings that people expect. Perhaps the marketplace of the
business is declining (think buggy whips), perhaps the company is
badly managed, perhaps the company has simply been out-competed by a
more efficient company. The fact that the stockholder chose wisely
says that the stockholder should be given a chance to do it again.
She should be paid a dividend, so that she can use her wisdom to
purchase more of the same stock, or another stock even more likely to
generate earnings.
Fourth, because corporate managers have a built-in incentive to
grow the company in opposition to paying out dividends. A bigger
company is expected to pay higher salaries to the top managers because
of the increased responsibility. These managers tend, then, to engage
in mergers which turn out to be unprofitable. The majority of
purchasing companies pay too much for the purchased company. If, on
the other hand, the company pays a dividend, that reduces the amount
of available cash for frittering-away purposes.
Classic investment advice, such as that in Benjamin Graham's book
_The Intelligent Investor_ advises investors to put a premium on
stocks that consistently pay a dividend. Hopefully we can
return to the days when companies that are pleasing their customers
can also please their stockholders by paying them a dividend.
Posted [23:00] [Filed in:
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Tue, 01 Jun 2004
Statutory Minimum Gas Prices
According to Walter Williams, New York State has statutory
minimums on gasoline prices. That means that a portion of your
gas dollars goes to the state to pay for taxes, and another portion
goes to prop up the price of gas to reduce the effects of competition.
.... Just so you know where your money is going.
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Mon, 31 May 2004
The Labor Theory of Value
This dude on slashdot complains about "our purely
monetary system -- there is no measure for the labor hours, or the
quality of those hours, that go into the production of much of
anything. The cost of things that can't be measured monetarily is all
too often assumed to be "ZERO", but that simply isn't true. Even
freeware costs somebody something to make."
Marx had this theory for the source of value. At the time he was
writing, there was no consensus among economists for the source of
value. Why are diamonds
more valuable than water? They couldn't explain that, since
obviously water is more necessary to human life. They didn't have the
idea of marginal utility, so they were casting about for an
explanation. Marx's explanation was that the value of something came
from the labor that went into it. Water was easy to get, but diamonds
had to be mined from the earth.
Curiously, some people still believe that theory even though there
are numerous counter-examples to it. For example, it doesn't take
into account time preference. If all else is the same, people value
something now over something later. If I hide two packets of gold
coins, and offer to sell you their location, one of which you will be
told immediately, and the other of which you will be told in twenty
years, you will pay more for the first than the second. How can that
be, according to the labor theory of value? The same exact labor has
gone into each packet.
The slashdot dude has obviously made the same mistake. There is no
measure for the labor hours or the quality of those hours, that go
into the production of anything. That's not how you assign a
value to something. First, since value is relative, everyone assigns
their own value to something. There is no such thing a single
measurement of value. Second, you cannot assign a value to something
by looking at what it cost you. If the value of something was always
equal to its cost, nobody would ever sell anything for less than what
it cost them. Third, the way you find out how much somebody values
something is by looking to see what they will trade for it.
If something is not scarce, it is not an economic good, and you
cannot measure its value with anything, much less money.
Since it's not scarce, nobody will trade anything that is
scarce for it. Doesn't matter what: time, drugs, sex. Or even money.
Economics is not about money. It's about figuring out what people
will trade for what. So, what would you trade to get a copy of the
Linux kernel? Not the bits themselves, I mean the right to use or
redistribute the Linux kernel. What would you give up to get that
right?
Answer: nothing, because you already have that right. It's not
scarce. Its value to you has nothing to do with its cost to you, or
to the amount of labor that went into it.
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Tue, 25 May 2004
A Living Wage
Sigh. George
Gonos, thinks that the minimum
wage should be doubled. It's currently $5.15, and he's quoted in
the May 24th Watertown Daily Times as saying that he would like it
"set higher than $10/hour". He's listed as having gotten his PhD in
Economic Sociology. I would call it instead Economic Fantasy.
Anyone is free to demand a living wage, of course. That's not what
George wants. He wants employers to be forced to have to pay a
minimum wage. The trouble with that idea is that no employer is
forced -- no employer can be forced -- to employ anybody.
Go to anyone who employs people at the minimum wage, and ask to see
their books. It's quite likely that most of them would refuse, but
you'll find one who will agree. Double the wages of anyone making the
minimum wage, and bring everyone else up to George's new proposed
minimum of $10. Suddenly the books won't balance. You can be 100%
sure that the employer will now be losing money. So go through the
expenditures, looking to see what can be cut so as to make the
business break even again. I can guarantee that there's only two
places to get enough money to cover the new costs: employees wages,
and prices.
So, one way to pay the new living wage is to fire half your
employees. This is actually do-able. What you do is tell your
existing employees "At the end of this work week, the new living wage
law goes into effect. Half of you will lose your jobs, and the other
half will continue to be employed. The ones who will continue to have
jobs are the ones who have doubled the amount of work they get done in
the same amount of time. Have a nice week!" Your employees will hate
each other by the end of the week, but that's not your problem. This
is, by the way, likely not the solution that George expects will
happen.
The other possibility is to raise prices. The problem with doing
this, of course, is that not all work has to be done on the spot.
Some of it can be moved offshore. If employers suddenly have to
double their wage expenses, equally suddenly offshoring will grow.
Those companies will not have to raise their prices, and the companies
that do will go bankrupt. This, too, is probably not what George
expects. Even if businesses manage to raise prices without losing
business (when has that ever happened?), who will have to pay
those higher prices? Yep, the same people earning the new living
wage. So, the calculations that went into the living wage will get
completely thrown off, and it will no longer be a living wage. George
seems not to have anticipated this effect.
I'm not sure what George expects will happen, really, but doubling
the minimum wage will also require the imposition of tariffs on many
imported goods, as well as new laws forbidding the exporting of
services. Laws do not lead to freedom. Laws lead to more laws.
Freedom leads to prosperity.
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Mon, 24 May 2004
Minimum Wages
Let's get this out of the way fast: any minimum wage law is wicked,
and should be immediately abolished.
If that alone doesn't convince you, then let's get into details. A
minimum wage law says, in effect, that anybody whose labor is not
worth the minimum shall not be employed. Nobody would support a
minimum wage law if it were written that way. The Department of Labor
minimum
wage page says "The FLSA requires that most employees in the
United States be paid at least a minimum wage and overtime pay at time
and one-half the regular rate of pay after 40 hours in a workweek."
Minimum wage laws are supported by four sets of people:
- Employers who do not want to have to compete with other employers
who have lower labor costs.
- Employees who do not want to have to compete with other laborers
willing to accept lower wages.
- Employees, typically represented by unions, who can claim that
they are providing skilled labor, and should be paid more than a
worker hired at the minimum wage.
- Busybodies, who support "a living wage".
The classic example of an employer supporting the minimum wage is
the Northeast U.S. textile manufacturer. Textile mills were
originally built in America in the Northeast, where water power was
necessary and abundant. In time, water power became less important,
and textiles could be manufactured anywhere. Labor was cheap in the
South, and textile mills began to be built there, competing against
Northeast mills.
The Northeast mill owners did not want to have to compete with the
Southern mills. To raise everyone's costs to that of the Northeast,
they supported a minimum wage law. Rather than allow the South to
make textiles, and the Northeast workers move on to more profitable
activities, the Northeast textile manufacturers lobbied for a minimum
wage. In the end, they couldn't compete anyway, and most Northeast
textile mills have closed.
Employees want to be paid as much as they can, of course. They
will always have an incentive to have their own wages increased for
the same amount of effort. The wise employee will realize that they
are making a Faustian bargain. Their increased pay comes from
another laborer's unemployment.
Unions are a legal
monopoly on labor. A union will (at least in theory) take the
members dues and spend them in such a manner as to raise the members
wages enough higher to pay for the dues and then some. One of the
ways they can do this is by supporting minimum wage laws. Typically,
union members' wages are higher than minimum, sometimes by a factor of
two or three. They do this so that they can argue "Well, the minimum
wage is now fifty cents higher. Our members should get a raise of
fifty cents."
Busybodies support minimum wages out of a sense of fairness. Some
of them adhere to Marx's labor theory of value. This is the idea that
labor produces all value, and so all profits should go to laborers.
It's obviously balderdash, but it's convinced some people. There's
also shouldness: nobody should have to work for such a low
wage. This is obviously true, but the economist needs to add her own
should: nobody should lose their job because of a minimum
wage law. Equally obviously true.
Some busybodies total up the costs of living the way they want poor
people to live, and call the wages necessary to pay thoses costs "a
living wage". Without further thought, they support a minimum wage
law to increase the wages to a "living wage." This is a "should"
rather than an "is", just as in the previous paragraph. Just as they
"should" get a living wage, neither "should" they endure the
consequences of forcing employers to pay a living wage.
Follow the money
A minimum wage coerces an employer to pay more in wages than they
are receiving in labor. Clearly, if the employer was receiving that
value in labor, free market competition would force them to pay the
wage for that labor. The money to pay wages in excess of labor
received does not come from nowhere. It is a new cost imposed on a
business. In a free market economy, in time, that cost will be
reflected in the price of the good. Go read about prices, costs, and value if you think
otherwise.
If nothing else changes, then, prices will rise to cover the
increase to the minimum wage. The effect would be for everyone in the
economy, including those formerly employed at the minimum wage, those
currently employed at the minimum wage, and unemployed people, to pay
for the increase. While the now-minimum-wage employees are
better-off, the already-minimum-wage employees and unemployed people
are worse off. They are paying more for things, but not getting any
more themselves, even though they're equally or worse as well-off as
the now-minimum-wage employees. This effect is ignored or dismissed
by proponents of minimum wages.
You never have the case of nothing else changing, when you change
the price of something. Because goods and services produced by
minimum-wage employees are now more expensive, fewer of them will be
purchased. Fewer minimum-wage employees will be needed. This effect
is ignored or dismissed by proponents of minimum wages.
Labor is now more expensive. Whenever the cost of an input to
production changes, the manager of that production will re-evaluate
the production methods. It may be that a tool whose cost was formerly
prohibitive is now cost-effective. The McDonalds near me now has a
french-fry basket loader. They dump a big bag of fries into the
hopper, and it loads a specific amount into a fry basket. No doubt
the machine is cheaper to employ than the employee's time. This
effect is ignored or dismissed by proponents of minimum wages.
An employer may reevaluate his processes, and find that he can do
without the employee entirely. Perhaps a tool could be employed?
Perhaps the production process may be made more efficient? Perhaps he
can get other workers to work harder? This effect is ignored or
dismissed by proponents of minimum wages.
No matter how you cut it, somebody worse-off than the employee ends
up paying for the increased (above market) wages. That's a result of
economics, which is value-neutral. We could use our values to decide
that that's acceptable, fair, and moral. I don't think it is.
Minimum wage laws should be abolished solely because of that negative
effect.
Why didn't I notice this?
Right about now, somebody will say "there is no evidence that the
minimum wage law creates unemployment." They are fortunately quite
correct. The current minimum wage law doesn't lift wages much above
the market level. That means that they also don't create much
une